Key takeaways:
- Although US staffing hours overall are up 11% from last year, industrial rose 17%, while office/clerical dropped 7%.
- A firm-wide growth rate combines those segments into one figure that conceals which desks are losing share.
- A helpful strategy is to grade each desk against its own segment, then shift recruiters toward stronger segments.
A 10% total growth rate looks great next to an 11% industry headline. But that changes if, at the desk level, industrial grew 14% against a 17% market surge, while clerical contracted.
That’s the risk of blended growth rates. They show overall performance but hide where to allocate capital.
Overall, staffing hours are recovering, but vertical growth varies
The American Staffing Association’s September index found that temp and contract employment for the four weeks ending September 13 was 5.8% above the same period in 2025.
In addition, according to the SIA | Bullhorn weekly staffing indicator, US staffing hours for the week ending October 10 were 11% above the same week last year. That’s the highest level since February 2024. But a closer look shows that industrial hours rose 17% year over year, professional hours rose 9%, and IT rose 6%. Meanwhile, office/clerical hours fell 7%.
The SIA | Bullhorn indicator shows the industrial index just reached its 2019 benchmark, a level it last hit in 2022. So the vertical has made a complete recovery and remains a strong market in which to add capacity. However, prepare for a slowdown in expansion as year-over-year comparisons become more demanding.
On the office/clerical side, hours are well behind 2025 and even further behind 2024. That’s at least two years of steady decline.
Adding federal projections to the mix, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) expects office and administrative support jobs to fall 4% from 2025 to 2035. That’s about 752,100 jobs, the steepest decline of any occupational group. Total employment is projected to grow 3.5% over the same period. BLS expects AI-related automation to decrease demand for several office roles.
Although projections are apt to change, a clerical desk lagging behind figures from previous years suggests a contracting market. That’s an issue that good sales tactics alone can’t solve.
The downfall of a blended growth rate
A firm with 10% growth may be close to the market’s 11%. But if most of that 10% came from industrial, and the industrial desk grew three points slower than its segment, that firm only appeared to be keeping pace while losing share where demand was strongest.
And if a firm is split evenly between industrial and clerical, with each desk growing exactly as fast as its segment, its blended growth comes out around 5%. Next to the 11% market figure, it seems like that firm is falling behind, even though neither desk lost ground.
Diversified firms are more likely to experience this, because every additional desk blends another segment into the overall number.
How to divide performance by desk
Start with three numbers per desk, going back eight quarters:
- Billed hours: This is the figure you can compare against the industry series.
- Gross profit: Hours can grow while margin drops, especially in a segment where clients are pushing rates.
- Recruiter time: Count the recruiters, or share of recruiter hours, assigned to each desk.
Calculate each desk’s year-over-year change for each quarter. Comparing a quarter to the same quarter last year removes most seasonal swings. Then compare each desk to its segment’s figure for the same period.
Eight quarters is long enough to distinguish a trend from one unusual quarter. It also tells you whether recruiter time followed the growth or stayed where it was two years ago.
Once you compare each desk to its segment’s growth rate, every desk falls into one of three categories:
- Ahead of the segment: You’re winning share in this market. Add recruiter capacity here first, as long as you’re maintaining gross profit per hour.
- Trailing a growing segment: This is a share issue. Demand is there, but someone else is filling it. Look at speed to submit, fill rate, and pricing on this desk before you hire. Adding recruiters to a desk that loses orders on speed won’t help.
- Matching a declining segment: The market is to blame for this one. Better execution won’t create orders if the demand’s not there. Protect margin, serve the accounts you have well, and shift new recruiter time elsewhere.
Mixing up the last two can be expensive. Mistaking a shrinking market for a loss of market share leads to hiring into declining areas. On the other hand, failing to recognize true demand gaps means leaving revenue on the table for competitors.
Establish a rule for moving recruiters before growth impacts revenue
Building eight quarters of history is the challenging part. If your applicant tracking system (ATS) tags orders by client or branch, it’s hard to find occupation data. AI tools can help take the first pass, tagging past requisitions by segment from job titles and descriptions. But spot-check a sample by hand before you trust it.
With the history in place, write a rule for moving recruiters toward growing segments. Your P&L closes quarterly, but the industry hours series updates weekly, and new recruiters need time to build a pipeline. For example, if a segment’s hours beat last year for eight straight weeks and your desk is keeping pace, shift a recruiter’s time to that desk. Set the threshold that works for your firm and write it down, so you move while the growth is still building.
