The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index dropped to 106.41 in August, representing a decline from July’s revised reading of 107.13. This figure marks the index’s weakest performance since early 2021, signaling potential employment challenges ahead.
The employment indicator has experienced a sustained downturn following its pandemic recovery peak several years ago. Mitchell Barnes, Senior Economist at The Conference Board, characterized the recent data as particularly troubling, noting that while earlier declines reflected labor market stabilization after COVID-19 disruptions, current weakness appears more concerning.
Barnes emphasized that despite relatively stable layoff rates and low unemployment, economic uncertainties continue to affect business decisions. He warned that escalating trade tensions could drive up costs and reduce consumer spending, potentially limiting business expansion and workforce growth.
Several key employment metrics deteriorated in August. Consumer perceptions of job availability worsened significantly, with one-fifth of survey respondents now describing employment opportunities as difficult to find — the highest percentage recorded since early 2021. Simultaneously, available job positions contracted by 176,000 during July, following an even steeper 355,000 drop in June. Temporary staffing, often considered an early indicator of broader hiring trends, shed 9,800 positions.
This widespread weakness suggests the labor market may be approaching a significant shift, with business activity slowing more substantially as corporate confidence weakens.
