71% of business leaders believe that the probability of the U.S. entering a recession in the next 12 months is 50% or less, according to the July 2023 NABE Business Conditions Survey report. That represents a significant improvement from last quarter, when only 53% of business leaders expressed this confidence in the economy.
The survey results as a whole suggest that respondents are feeling much more positive than they have in a while. The Net Rising Index (NRI) for sales, which is the percentage reporting rising sales minus the percentage reporting falling sales, went from 30 to 33, while the forward-looking NRI for sales rose from 25 to 38, showing expectations that sales will grow.
The NRI for profits landed at 0, while the forward-looking NRI for profits turned positive. Both of these numbers had been negative for four consecutive surveys. Meanwhile, price measurements rose while those for materials costs declined. In addition, more than half (53%) of respondents said that wages were unchanged for the first time since 2021.
NABE President Julia Coronado said: “Results of the July 2023 NABE Business Conditions Survey reflect an economy of rising sales and profits, as materials costs decline and stabilizing wages prove less challenging.”