The US Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined in April, dropping 0.3% to 119.2. This follows a 0.1% increase in March. The LEI has risen 0.9% over the past six months.

Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board, attributed April’s decrease to “weak consumer expectations and a drop in residential building permits.” 

The LEI’s somewhat flat trajectory recently suggests a moderate growth outlook. But “a range of downside risks — including inflation, rising interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and pandemic-related shutdowns, particularly in China — continue to weigh on the outlook,” Ozyildirim added. “Nevertheless, we project the US economy should resume expanding in Q2 following Q1’s contraction in real GDP. Despite downgrades to previous forecasts, The Conference Board still projects 2.3% year-over-year US GDP growth in 2022.”

The Coincident Economic Index went up 0.4% to 108.8 in April, and the Lagging Economic Index rose 0.4% to 111.6 for the month.