Chart with red down arrow isolated on black background. Falling growth in business

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.7% in June 2023 to 106.1, representing its 15th consecutive month of decline. The index, which provides an early indication of where the economy may be heading in the short term, is down 4.2% compared to 6 months ago.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board, noted that the decrease was “fueled by gloomier consumer expectations, weaker new orders, an increased number of initial claims for unemployment, and a reduction in housing construction.”

The Conference Board believes that the economy will be in recession from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024.

Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which provides an indication of the current state of the economy based on payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing trade and sales, and industrial production, remained unchanged.