The US Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.8% to 117.1 in June after a drop of 0.6% in May. Over the last six months, the LEI has decreased 1.8%, following an increase of 3.3% during the second half of 2021.
June marks the fourth consecutive month the LEI has decreased, indicating that economic growth will continue to slow. “Consumer pessimism about future business conditions, moderating labor market conditions, falling stock prices, and weaker manufacturing new orders drove the LEI’s decline in June,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board.
The Coincident Economic Index went up 0.2% to 108.6 in June, following a 0.2% increase in May. This indicates economic growth occurred in the second quarter. The Lagging Economic Index rose by 0.8% to 113.9 in June after an 0.8% increase in May.
“Amid high inflation and rapidly tightening monetary policy, The Conference Board expects economic growth will continue to cool throughout 2022,” Ozyildirim added. “A US recession around the end of this year and early next is now likely.”