The U.S. Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined another 0.3% in February, dropping to 110.0. This follows January’s 0.3% decrease, brings the index’s six-month decrease to -3.6%, and marks the index’s eleventh consecutive month of declines.
“While the rate of month-over-month declines in the LEI have moderated in recent months,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board, “the leading economic index still points to risk of recession in the U.S. economy. The most recent financial turmoil in the US banking sector is not reflected in the LEI data but could have a negative impact on the outlook if it persists.”
The U.S. Coincident Economic Index inched up 0.1% to 109.8 in February and has increased 0.6% over the past six months. The Lagging Economic Index went up 0.2% to 118.5 in February and has risen 2.1% within the last six months.
“Overall,” Zabinska-La Monica added, “The Conference Board forecasts rising interest rates paired with declining consumer spending will most likely push the U.S. economy into recession in the near term.”
