After holding steady in August (revised), the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. fell 0.4% to 115.9 in September, increasing the likelihood of a recession before the end of the year. The index has declined 2.8% over the past six months.
“Weaknesses among the leading indicators were widespread,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. “Amid high inflation, slowing labor markets, rising interest rates, and tighter credit conditions, The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth will be 1.5% year-over-year in 2022, before slowing further in the first half of next year.”
The U.S. Coincident Economic Index rose by 0.2% to 108.9 in September, and the Lagging Economic Index increased 0.6% to 116.2.