The US Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.3% to reach 119.9 in February, partially reversing January’s 0.5% drop.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, however, has yet to show its full impact on the LEI and could slow economic growth for the first half of the year. “The global economic impact of the war on supply chains and soaring energy, food, and metals prices — coupled with rising interest rates, existing labor shortages, and high inflation — all pose headwinds to US economic growth,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board.
New COVID-19 variants could come into play as well. “Amid these risks,” Ozyildirim added, “The Conference Board revised its growth projection for the US economy down to 3% year-over-year GDP growth in 2022 — still well above the pre-pandemic growth rate, which averaged around 2%.”
The Coincident Economic Index climbed up 0.4% to 108.0 in February, and the Lagging Economic Index was unchanged at 110.3 for the month. This follows increases of 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively, in January.
