The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) fell from 115.53 in May (downward revision) to 114.31 in June, marking the second consecutive month of decreases and suggesting that job growth will continue to slow.
“We will need to see further declines in the ETI before predicting if—and when—employment growth will turn negative,” said Selcuk Eren, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. He added, “We’re still in a very tight job market, especially compared to pre-pandemic conditions.”
Five of the eight labor market indicators negatively impacted the index in June:
- Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers
- Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
- Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now
- Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry
- Industrial Production
“Among the components of the ETI, job openings have been trending downwards since the highs reached a year ago, but remain well above pre-pandemic levels,” Eren added. In addition, the number of temporary help employees has been decreasing since November 2022, an early indicator signaling a slowing job market.
“By the middle of next year, we forecast the unemployment rate to peak at around 4.5% and labor force participation to fall to 62.1%—compared to current levels of 3.6% and 62.6%, respectively.”
