The US Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) dropped 0.4% to 116.6 in July after a 0.7% decrease in June. The LEI fell 1.6% from January to July of this year, canceling out the 1.6% increase in the second half of 2021.

This the fifth consecutive month the LEI has decreased, making a recession in the near future more likely. The Conference Board anticipates a brief, mild recession by the end of the year or early 2023, following a lack of economic expansion in the third quarter of this year.

“Consumer pessimism and equity market volatility as well as slowing labor markets, housing construction, and manufacturing new orders suggest that economic weakness will intensify and spread more broadly throughout the US economy,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board. 

The Coincident Economic Index rose 0.3% to 108.6 in July, and the Lagging Economic Index went up 0.4% to 114.4 for the month.