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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell again in July. The index was down 0.4%, following a 0.7% decline in June. Overall, the LEI has decreased 4% since the beginning of the year.

“The US LEI—which tracks where the economy is heading—fell for the sixteenth consecutive month in July, signaling the outlook remains highly uncertain,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

On a positive note, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which tracks where the economy is right now, increased by 0.4%. Over the last six months, the CEI grew three times and remained unchanged the other three, which Zabinska-La Monica said indicates that “we are currently still in a favorable growth environment.” However, she noted that July saw “weak new orders, high interest rates, a dip in consumer perceptions of the outlook for business conditions, and decreasing hours worked in manufacturing.”

The Conference Board currently forecasts the U.S. will experience a “short and shallow recession” in Q4 2023 to Q1 2024.