Business person analyzing financial statistics displayed on the tablet screen

The US Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.8% to 114.9 in October, after falling 0.5% in September (revised), signaling that a recession may be right around the corner. This is the eighth consecutive month the index has declined, and it has dropped 3.2% over the last six months.

“The downturn in the LEI reflects consumers’ worsening outlook amid high inflation and rising interest rates, as well as declining prospects for housing construction and manufacturing,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. “The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth will be 1.8% year-over-year in 2022, and a recession is likely to start around yearend and last through mid-2023.”

The U.S. Coincident Economic Index increased 0.2% to reach 109.3 in October, and the Lagging Economic Index rose by 0.1% to 116.3.